Risks facing maritime transport in 2025

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Maritime transport, a cornerstone of international trade, faces a complex environment in 2025 that threatens its stability. For industry professionals, understanding the risks associated with maritime transport has become crucial for developing effective mitigation strategies.

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Unstable markets and economic shifts

Freight rate rollercoaster and slowed global economy

The maritime transport market is currently experiencing instability in freight rates. This volatility poses a significant risk for maritime transport, especially given the moderate global economic context (3.3% growth according to the OECD) and particularly weak growth in Europe (1.0 to 1.3%). These conditions hinder the creation of sufficient demand pressure to sustainably stabilize prices.

The new tariff war: when barriers arise

The trade war initiated by the United States in the spring of 2025 has disrupted established balances. Tariffs are reaching unprecedented levels (125% on certain Chinese products, 20% on European products), forcing a reconfiguration of global supply chains and causing sharp declines in European financial markets.

Currencies under pressure: the trap of monetary fluctuations

Exchange rate variations represent a real risk for maritime transport in 2025. Companies that negotiate contracts in one currency but pay their suppliers in another are exposed to significant potential losses. In a context of high monetary volatility, this exposure can significantly erode the profit margins of maritime operators.

Too many ships, too little freight: the insoluble equation

The colossal overcapacity characterizing the maritime market in 2025 intensifies pressure on margins. Shipowners with aging fleets or significant financial exposure face an increased risk of default, especially as many ships ordered during the post-Covid period continue to enter the market.

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Geopolitical tensions and new front lines

Redesigning shipping routes in the face of conflicts

Several areas of tension are disrupting major global shipping routes in 2025. Although the conflict in the Red Sea has subsided, its effects on logistics organization persist. The threat of a dispute between China and Taiwan still looms, with potentially more serious implications for East-West trade.

The Panama Canal has also been the subject of diplomatic tensions since December 2024, with President Trump expressing his intention to regain control despite strong opposition from the Panamanian government.

These tensions lead to costly detours, significant delays, and increased insurance premiums for shipping companies.

The sanctions puzzle: navigating a legal labyrinth

Economic sanctions continue to significantly impact the map of international traffic. Shipowners must navigate a complex regulatory maze to avoid hefty fines.

The "sanctions" clauses included in insurance contracts weaken risk coverage for many operators, allowing insurers to terminate a policy without notice when the activity becomes prohibited.

Modern piracy and terrorist threats: predators on the high seas

Despite international efforts, piracy continues to pose a risk to maritime transport in 2025. Attacks against commercial vessels endanger crews and cargo, while imposing additional security costs. Terrorist threats targeting strategic maritime infrastructure are also a growing concern for authorities and operators.

The era of national retreat: when each country imposes its rules

The rise of economic nationalism translates into a proliferation of specific local regulations that complicate the operations of maritime carriers. These disparate regulations create a patchwork of different obligations depending on the geographical areas, increasing compliance costs and the risk of unintentional violations for international maritime operators.

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Operational challenges in an unpredictable world

The raging sea: when storms sweep away goods

Incidents such as the MSC Houston V in March 2025, which lost more than 15 containers during a violent storm off Portugal, perfectly illustrate the risks of maritime transport linked to extreme weather conditions.

According to the 2024 report from the World Shipping Council, the number of containers lost at sea fell to 221 in 2023 (out of 250 million transported), but each incident represents a considerable risk for the environment and navigation.

In ports, the shadow of organized crime

A Europol report documents how criminal networks rely on corruption to organize the passage of illicit goods. Of the 2,000 tons of cocaine produced each year, 600 to 700 tons arrive on the European market, mainly via the ports of Antwerp, Rotterdam, and Hamburg where only 10% of containers from South America are inspected.

Cyber threats: the invisible storm striking ships

The maritime sector faces an explosion of cyberattacks, with a 235% increase compared to 2020. The intensive digitization of ships and ports creates an unprecedented level of interdependence and digital exposure.

Attacks affect all links in the maritime chain: ports and their industrial control systems (SCADA), ships and their navigation systems vulnerable to GPS spoofing techniques, but also, more recently, submarine cables and satellite telecommunication systems, which are critical infrastructures for the global Internet.

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The ocean under environmental pressure

The cost of green transition: constraints and opportunities

Faced with the climate challenge, environmental regulations are becoming considerably stricter. Maritime transport represents about 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions, a share that could rise to 17% by 2050 without decisive action.

The sector will have to invest at least $23 billion per year to achieve its climate goals, a significant financial burden for many players.

Oil spills and natural disasters: double threat to the marine ecosystem

Marine pollution incidents linked to oil spills or the loss of containers represent a major risk, both environmentally and reputationally. At the same time, the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events (hurricanes, typhoons, storms) pose a risk to maritime transport, threatening both ships at sea and port infrastructure.

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Financial shields against maritime risks

Secure your transactions with payment guarantee

To face the financial risks associated with international transactions, implementing a payment guarantee is an effective solution. This mechanism provides an alternative to traditional letters of credit, protecting both buyers and sellers against the risk of non-delivery and non-payment.

Funds are blocked until all parties have met the requirements of the contract, offering optimal security for transactions affected by maritime transport risks, with a payment guarantee as the key.

Short-term financing: providing cash flow in troubled waters

Short-term financing solutions are a valuable tool for managing maritime transport risks: payment guarantee foremost. These mechanisms, ranging from 30 to 120 days, allow companies to maintain their operational flexibility while securing their cash flows.

For buyers, these solutions offer the possibility of aligning payment deadlines with revenue cycles. For sellers exposed to maritime transport risks, the payment guarantee represents security insurance and a proactive approach to managing these risks.

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Supplier diversification, logistical flexibility, and the use of specific financial tools are key elements of a resilient strategy against current maritime transport risks.

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